Why Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence are set to take a leap forward in 2023

Why Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence are set to take a leap forward in 2023

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I love it when a few QBs make "the leap" every year. QB is the most important position in sports and breakout performances are one fascinating and impactful facet of that.I recently logged every QB leap since 2000 to find the most common factors linking them together as we look ahead to project breakout (or improved) performances in 2023.The primary factors leading to QB leaps can be placed into four buckets: QB development, coaching, supporting cast and a change of scenery. Today's focus is the supporting cast. I'm talking about instances like Donovan McNabb in 2004 and in 2007. McNabb went from 16 touchdown pa ses in 2003, to 31 in 2004 after the traded for Terrell Owens. Brady had never even had a 30-touchdown season prior to the trading for Randy Mo s. He proceeded to throw for an NFL-record 50 in his first season with Mo s in the Patriots' 16-0 regular-season run in 2007.Now trading for veteran pa s catchers is the hot trend in the copycat league. Getting top-flight wide receivers worked wonders for (), (), () and (A.J. Brown) in the last few years. Landing an All-Pro offensive lineman or drafting a stud running back has led to QB leaps in the past too.2022 Tua Tagovailoa ()Traded for 2022 Jalen Hurts (Eagles)Traded for A.J. Brown2021 Joe Burrow ()Drafted Ja'Marr Chase2020 Josh Allen ()Traded for Stefon Diggs2019 ()Traded for 2017 ()Drafted 2016 ()Signed 2015 ()Signed 2014 ()Drafted .2014 () emergence2007 Tom Brady David Wells Jersey (Patriots)Traded for Randy Mo s2007 ()Drafted 2005 Mark Brunell (Washington)Traded for Santana Mo s2004 Drew Brees () emergence2004 Donovan McNabb (Eagles)Traded for Terrell Owens2002 Trent Green (Chiefs)Traded for Willie RoafTeams are starting to figure out that rather than grow impatient and move on from a young QB, they can actually speed up their development by trading draft picks for proven veterans. The are an interesting case study. Rather than draft a better QB prospect in and trade , they opted to invest more around Fields while trading the top pick for a sets like WR .There were a lot of fascinating offseason moves that could be the primary factor for a QB leap. Here's four candidates, not including and , who were both discu sed in Thursday's article on QB leaps due to coaching changes. I expect both to take leaps, primarily because of new offensive coordinators, but rookie WRs drafted in the first round should help too. QB DAL Dallas #4 Age: 30 Experience: 8 yrs. 2022 Stats PAYDS 2,860 RUYDS 182 TD 23 INT 15 COMP PCT 66% Dak Prescott had a down year in 2022 by most measures, including ranking 15th in pa ser rating. He became the first player in history to lead the league in interceptions despite mi sing five-plus games. That number should regre s to the mean. He typically has one of the lowest interception rates in the league.I expect a rebound from Prescott, but not a leap to MVP contention. The Brandin Cooks deal gives Dallas a nice No. 2 WR after and helps make up for the deal last offseason. Cooks still has speed to burn and Prescott was mi sing a deep threat last year. Still, as Cooks has gone team to team none of the previous QBs he's played with (Tom Brady, , Deshaun Watson) took a noticeable leap in their first season with him. Let's also not forget Dallas' unpopular decision to move on from offensive coordinator . QB NYG N.Y. Giants #8 Age: 26 Experience: 5 yrs. 2022 Stats PAYDS 3,305 RUYDS 708 TD 15 INT 5 COMP PCT 67% Daniel Jones was an above-average QB in 2022 despite his top targets being , , and . He got it done with his legs, the lowest turnover rate among any qualified QB and one of the shortest average pa s lengths in football.If he's going to live up to his new contract (four years for $160 million) it'll be because he hits more shots down the field. Ross Travis Jersey The Giants have put him in position to do so, trading for Darren Waller and drafting Tenne see WR in the third round. Waller led all tight ends in receptions 20-plus yards downfield in 2022 (seven) despite mi sing eight games. Hyatt caught a ridiculous 10 of 16 targets thrown 30-plus air yards for seven touchdowns last year.I expect Jones to be solid again but not take a leap to top-five QB status. An injury to or Waller could easily derail a potential leap, and neither has proven the ability to stay healthy lately. Jones also hasn't proved he can thrive in Brian Daboll's offense by airing it out. QB JAC Jacksonville #16 Age: 24 Experience: 3 yrs. 2022 Stats PAYDS 4,113 RUYDS 291 TD 25 INT 8 COMP PCT 66% Trevor Lawrence already took the Year 2 leap, ranking as one of the league's best quarterbacks over the second half of the 2022 season. If he can maintain that level of performance for an entire season he'll take another leap and be in MVP contention. The return of WR Calvin Ridley from a gambling suspension could help elevate his game even more.The traded for Ridley last offseason, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this move have a similar impact to the A.J. Brown and Tyreek Hill trades. Ridley ranked sixth in the NFL in yards per route run in his last full season in 2020. Only , , Brown, Stefon Diggs and were better. You could do a lot worse than that company. Ridley will give Lawrence another deep threat, in addition to . Ridley led the NFL in catches 20-plus yards downfield (16) in 2020. I say "likely" at the top for Lawrence's leap because Ridley has only played five games in the last two seasons. Nothing is a guarantee although most signs point toward Lawrence being an MVP contender. QB CHI Chicago #1 Age: 25 Experience: 3 yrs. 2022 Stats PAYDS 2,242 RUYDS 1,143 TD 17 INT 11 TIMES SACKED 55 Fields' breakout began in 2022 as he became the third QB to run for 1,000 yards in a season, joining Michael Vick and Lamar Jackson. There's still a lot of room for improvement, though. He set the fantasy world on fire last year, particularly in the second half of the season, but still ranked 26th in interception rate and last in sack rate from Week 7 on. He finished dead last in fourth quarter pa ser rating for the entire season.Early reports from offseason workouts are extremely positive on Fields as offensive coordinator Luke Getsy said last month that he is " ahead of where he was in 2022. Some are predicting a Jalen Hurts-type leap with the Bears getting WR D.J. Moore in a deal where Chicago sent Carolina the top pick in the 2023 . The Bears also drafted OT in the first round.Two things will need to happen for Fields to take that big leap. Moore needs to be as good as advertised. He has 1,000 receiving yards in three of the last four seasons and ranks 22nd among 100 qualified WRs in yards per route run since entering the league in 2018. He's done it while catching pa ses from , , , and .Fields also needs to stop taking so many sacks. He was sacked a league-high 55 times despite having just 318 pa s attempts in 2022, the highest sack rate (15%) by any QB since Jake Plummer in 1997. It was somehow a higher sack rate than David Carr's in 2002, when he was sacked an NFL-record 76 times.Contrary to popular belief, it wasn't the fault of Chicago's offensive line. The unit ranked second in ESPN's pa s-block win rate, meaning it held its blocks for 2.5 seconds at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Problem is, nobody can hold their blocks forever and Fields J.J. Watt Jersey had the longest average time to throw (3.5 seconds) by any QB in a season since 2017, as far back as Pro Football Focus data goes.I like the chances of seeing a more polished Fields in 2023, who could take the biggest leap of any QB this season.
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